Cost of living - latest: Experts predict UK inflation will fall to 8.2% today - but they've been wrong lately (2023)

key point
  • Inflation update expected at 7am - these are the experts' predictions
  • IMF significantly improves UK economic outlook
  • Netflix crackdown on password sharing starts in the UK
  • UK house prices hit record high in May - Rightmove
  • Your dilemma:My employer has reduced my hours while I am on maternity leave - is this allowed?
  • Budget Mom:save for your kids|Will Subscribing to Food Save Money?|vacation money|The best broadband internet deals


Netflix crackdown on password sharing starts in the UK

Netflix has started sending emails to UK customers who share their accounts with someone "outside the household".

The streaming giant says Netflix accounts are "for single household use" and those who want to share accounts will have to pay £4.99 to do so.

Netflix posted a statement online last night, in which it read: "Everyone in this family can access Netflix anytime, anywhere -- at home, on the road, on vacation -- and leverage the ability to transfer profiles and manage access and devices, and more. new function.

Attached screenshots show email details on how users share their accounts.

This includes allowing users to "upgrade their profile" to a "new paid membership" or purchase additional memberships for an additional £4.99 per month.

Since its rapid expansion in the UK in 2017, Netflix joked about "Love shares the password" on Twitter in a style change.


Food inflation slightly down for milk - we'll see what that means for headline inflation at 7am

Falling milk prices helped lower trade inflation for a second straight month, industry data showed.

Kantar Worldpanel, which monitors supermarket sales and prices, measures year-on-year growth in grocery salesinflationThat increased to 17.2% in the four weeks to May 14.

That was down from 17.3% in the previous four weeks, but still the third-highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

The price of four liters of milk has fallen by 8p in four weeks amid rising food, production and transport costs.

But Kantar added that prices were still significantly higher than 12 months ago, when they were now £1.60 compared with £1.30.

You can read the full article on food inflation below as we await the headline figures from the ONS at 7am.


Inflation update expected at 7am - these are the experts' predictions

Economists polled by Reuters expect annual inflation to slow to 8.2% in April from the current 10.1%.

Electricity and natural gas prices rose 40.5% and 66.8%, respectively, in April 2022, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. This compares to flat last month, which should have an impact on the ONS data due at 7am.

However, it should be noted that in the first two months, experts' forecasts were low, and inflation unexpectedly remained at double-digit levels.

What is inflation?

Inflation is the rate at which prices rise.

It has now surged to 10.1%, largely due to higher energy prices due to global factors such as the war in Ukraine that have led to Russia cutting gas supplies. The conflict has also left large quantities of Ukrainian grain stranded at ports, sending food prices soaring.

For obvious reasons, the government wants to keep inflation low - the target is 2%, and Rishi Sunak has pledged to move closer to the 5% ceiling this year.

But just because inflation is down, it doesn't mean prices are down. Anything Above Zero Means Prices Are Going Up - and We ShouldzInflation to drive down prices, something few expected to happen.


BoE admits wrong forecasting of UK inflation

Bank of England policymakers were criticized at a meeting of the Treasury Committee for failing to forecast a sustained rise in inflation.

Conservative MP John Baron accused the bank of a "pathetic failure" to bring inflation down to its 2 per cent target, which he said was causing "real pain" to households and businesses.

The bank's chief economist, Huw Pill, admitted his economic forecasting models were wrong.

"We realized our inflation forecast was too low," he said.

"We're trying to understand why we make these mistakes, explain them from a behavioral standpoint, and make judgments based on how to proceed."

This follows the Bank of England revising its inflation forecast earlier this month after it said food price inflation was higher than expected.

UK consumer price index (CPI) inflation, which had previously been thought to be in the low 1% range by the middle of next year, is now expected to be around 3.4%.

World Bank President Andrew Bailey has responded to public criticism of a loss of confidence in his economic model and interest rate decisions.

"I think there are some very important lessons in the way we conduct monetary policy in the face of very large shocks. Because the shocks we are facing are unprecedented," he said.

"I think there are many lessons about how we do politics in this world — a world of high uncertainty."


"The IMF has been making mistakes..."

Regarding the IMF forecasts we recently told you about, we have a video in which Ed Conway, the data and economics editor, asks the group's chief executive how important it is that they keep getting it wrong.

see what she says...


Government lending much higher than expected

The state took on almost £12bn more debt last month than last April, according to official figures, as it spent on energy schemes, higher welfare payments and billions in interest payments.

Monthly borrowing rises to £25.6bn in April£21.5 billion in MarchAccording to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), it will reach £13.7bn in April 2022.

This means that the public sector (excluding public sector banks) spends more in taxes and other revenues than it receives, and borrows to make up the missing amount.

Read the full story...


IMF sharply improves outlook for UK economy - but says cost of living will rise

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced today that it does not expect the UK to experience a recession or experience the weakest economic growth of the seven major industrialized economies this year.

showing a marked improvement in its outlook for the UK, which the fund had previously predicted would doFacing the worst 2023 among G7 countriesBritain will actually grow by 0.4% this year, he said.

While that was still weak, it was stronger than the previous forecast of a 0.7% decline and stronger than the "virtually zero" growth rate set by the IMF for Germany.

Read Ed Conway's full story here...


More than £450m of school renovations still 'unfinished'

The more than £450m spent on improving hundreds of school buildings across the country is "the bare minimum" and "not nearly enough" to make much-needed improvements, the education chief says.

The Department for Education (DfE) has announced that 859 colleges, sixth forms and volunteer-supported schools will receive part of £456m in funding to help rebuild and restore buildings.

While this will help provide safe, warm and energy-efficient classrooms for students, the secretary general of the Association of School and College Principals said it would not pay for maintenance.

"This is funding awarded through the annual tender scheme to meet a significant need for school and university building conditions and is certainly not an example of government generosity," Geoff Barton said.

"This is the bare minimum and not enough to cover the cost of remedial work to fix or replace all faulty parts in a single school in England - a cost of £11.4bn at last figures."

The government says it has invested more than £15bn in building refurbishments since 2015.


Station no longer offers cheapest train tickets - he reports

Station offices are said to no longer offer the cheapest train tickets and passengers are forced to book online or use vending machines to get the best faresdaily telegraph.

Buying tickets in advance, even 10 minutes before the train departs, can be a third cheaper than buying a standard ticket.

But railroad bosses began banning commuters from selling them, the news agency reported.

In July 2017, the ban on advance ticket sales on the day was lifted.

This comes as rail passengers suffer a year of disruption due to strikes, as the dispute between operators, rail, maritime and transport workers' unions and Aslef continues.


Money Saving Tips: How to Entertain Your Kids on a Budget

Next week marks midterms for many kids across the country, but it can be a stressful time for families trying to keep them happy without breaking the bank.

We've put together a list of fun things your kids can do while on vacation for free (even if you don't have kids, most of them are still fun).


Many museums are free and offer great learning opportunities for children.

Some entrance fee, but on certain days it's free, so it's worth checking before you go.

Excellent Money Saver Expert website made better with helpThere is a free museum.

In London, good options for children include the Natural History Museum and the Science Museum, which have many interactive exhibits, including a playground with gardens.

If your kids love trains, York's National Railway Museum is a great option, allowing visitors to pretend ride a locomotive.

Some museums host events or craft days for kids, so keep an eye out for them.


If you have a bike, go explore.

There are many free cycling apps that can help you plan your route, such as CycleStreets and Map My Ride.

Former rail lines across the country offer excellent off-road biking routes.

Examples include the Camel Track in Cornwall, the Bristol to Bath Railway in Somerset and the Cinder Track in North Yorkshire.

adventure park

Some playgrounds offer free entry - for example, Macedon Park Playground in Derbyshire, Heartlands in Cornwall and Princess Diana Memorial Playground in London, which features a wooden pirate ship.

cheap movie tickets

Children's tickets are just £2.50 when accompanied by an adult on Cineworld's teen film series.

At Vue, some matinees are offering pre-booked tickets for adults and children from just £2.49.

stay home thoughts

If you feel more comfortable staying at home, try building a fort or cave with your child.

Or you can try to learn a new skill together by watching YouTube tutorials and exercises - here atmagic tricksis a good example.

Make it fun for your kids to look forward to by putting on a show for the rest of the family on weekends.

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